Global and geopolitical shifts have always impacted humanitarian action. In response to the immense current changes, various networks have gathered to sketch out future scenarios and their implications for humanitarian systems. Scenario-development helps imagine potential or expected futures. Identifying specific drivers or events supports making sense of larger (global) shifts and their relation to specific realities. Also, sketching out futures for organisational contexts can shed light on operational opportunities.
Different scenarios have different implications for humanitarian actors and for people in crisis. Having insight in those can guide decisions on how governmental and multilateral agencies, as well as NGOs and local and national civil society, should prepare for, and respond. Scenarios also serve substantiated conversations amongst partners about adequate responses and divisions of roles.
The Dutch Relief Alliance has gone through a scenario development process, called ‘Fit for Future’, to explore current and future challenges and opportunities and how to prepare for it. In this process, DRA representatives made an analysis for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Several dilemmas, as well as pathways into the future were then formulated, leading to different scenarios, of which one will be further developed the coming year.
The Inter-Agency Research and Analysis Network (IARAN), in collaboration with the Centre for Humanitarian Leadership, also presented scenarios in the report ‘Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation’. Four contrasting scenarios emphasise transformation under local leadership in pathways towards future humanitarian systems, within a typology of crises. The scenarios are shaped primarily by people affected by crises and aid practitioners. For example, 77% of those involved in the process are from the Global South and around 40% has lived experience of crisis.
In this workshop, both sets of scenarios, as well as the process of their formulation, will be presented. After the presentations participants reflect in smaller groups on the scenarios and their implications, especially also for the organisations that participants represent.
To sign up for this session, please send an email to: kuno@kuno-platform.nl.
Read more about this series here.
Other sessions in this series will focus on:
- Session 2 – Models of partnership, funding and operations
- Session 3 – INGOs and their constituencies in donor-countries
- Session 4 – Futuring: what roles for INGOs are conceivable in a more localised system?
– Pictures: Cordaid, MSF, UNICEF –
